AlphaRaccoon Faces 50 Years for Insider Trading

Ah, yes. Gambling.

Who

His name is Michele Spagnuolo, he's 36, Italian, and has worked at Google (Zurich, Switzerland) since 2014 as a software engineer.

Well allegedly, he accessed Google's internal "Year in Search 2025" tool which showed trending search results before they were released to the public, and used that info to place bets on Polymarket under the username "AlphaRaccoon". As one does.

What

He made roughly 25 wagers between October and December 2025 on very specific outcomes, risking about $2.75 million total.

Biggest win: He bet that a rapper would be the #1 most-searched person of 2025, even though the market gave zero odds for that outcome.

He also bet against favorites, knowing they wouldn't win:

• ~$937,000 against Bianca Censori being #1 (market gave her 85% odds)
• ~$613,000 against Pope Leo XIV being #1
• ~$509,000 against Donald Trump being #1

Google released its Year in Search results on December 4, 2025, and he walked away with $1.2 million for his troubles. Until he got caught.

Everything Else

The account disappeared after Discord and X users started speculating that AlphaRaccoon was a Google employee. The bets were just too specific. He moved the funds through crypto swaps to make transactions harder to trace, but the FBI tracked it anyway. Turns out moving money through crypto swaps doesn't help much when the payment account is tied to your real ID.

Spagnuolo's facing three federal charges in the Southern District of New York:

He was arrested in New York, did not enter a plea, and was released on a $2.25 million bond.

Polymarket is promoting the arrest as proof its fraud detection works, but realistically this is just one person getting caught. Lots of sus trades go undetected daily.

Apparently insider trading laws work on crypto prediction markets now too.